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Methodology: How Signal8 Computes Its Key Figures
How Signal8 calculates the Dilution Pressure Score, float, and cash runway, and why a figure that was not measured is never shown as zero.
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Why this page exists
Signal8 publishes figures about named public companies: dilution scores, float, cash runway and more. A number on a screen invites a reader to treat it as a measurement, so this page explains where the main figures come from, what they assume, and what happens when an input is missing. It is a plain-English summary; the underlying documents are always the company's own SEC filings.
For politician trading data, see the separate Personal Financial Disclosure methodology, which covers value brackets, exclusions, amendments and sources.
The core principle: not measured is not zero
Every figure on Signal8 is either measured, bounded, or not measured, and the three are kept apart.
- Measured means the input was found and the calculation ran. A measured zero is a real finding, for example "no active ATM program found in the filings read".
- Bounded means part of the figure could be measured but part could not. It is shown as a floor or a ceiling ("at least 18%", "at most 12,000,000 shares"), never as the figure itself.
- Not measured means the input was unavailable. It is shown as "Not measured" or "Not available" with a reason where possible, never as 0, "None" or "No".
This matters because the most common way to mislead with data is to let an absence read as a favourable fact. A company whose warrants could not be read does not "have no warrants". A company whose cash could not be found does not "have no cash".
Dilution Pressure Score
The Dilution Pressure Score summarises dilution-related evidence in a company's filings into points across seven components. Each component has a maximum, and the maximums add to 100:
| Component | Max points | What it looks at |
|---|---|---|
| Warrants in the money | 20 | Share of active warrants exercisable below the current price |
| Convertible proximity | 15 | How close convertible conversion prices are to the current price |
| Shelf capacity | 15 | Remaining registered capacity, limited by the baby shelf rule where it applies |
| ATM and equity line capacity | 15 | Unused room on active ATM programs and equity lines, relative to market value |
| Toxic financing indicators | 15 | Deal terms such as variable-price conversion and price resets |
| Cash burn urgency | 10 | Estimated cash runway |
| Historical dilution | 10 | Growth rate of shares outstanding across filed balance sheets |
Score and scoreMaxMeasured
If a component's input is unavailable (for example, no stock price, so warrant moneyness cannot be judged), that component is dropped from the denominator rather than scored as zero. The score is then shown with the maximum it was actually measured against: a company might read 42 / 85, meaning 42 points out of the 85 that could be assessed, with the excluded components listed by name.
In the API and the MCP server these appear as score and scoreMaxMeasured, with the excluded components in scoreUnmeasuredComponents. A score is never rescaled to "out of 100", because doing so would assume the missing component would have scored in proportion to the others.
When there is no score
Sometimes no score is published at all, and a scoreWithheldReason says why: for example, no dilution snapshot exists for the company yet, or too many components were unmeasured to support a number. A withheld score is not a score of zero.
Risk levels
Alongside the score, Signal8 shows four levels (overall, offering ability, overhead supply and cash need) as Low, Medium or High. When some instruments could not be quantified, the levels are marked as lower bounds: "Medium" then means at least medium.
Float
"Float" has several definitions, and Signal8 labels which one a figure uses:
- Tradeable float: shares outstanding minus shares held by affiliates, minus restricted or unregistered blocks that cannot yet be sold. This is what can actually reach the market, and it is the definition used where a filing-derived dilution snapshot exists.
- Non-affiliate float: the SEC's measure, which subtracts affiliates only and therefore includes restricted shares held by non-affiliates. It is the correct input for Form S-3 and baby shelf calculations, and the wrong one for judging tradeable supply. See non-affiliate float.
- Estimates and vendor figures: where filings have not been analysed, float may be approximated from ownership filings or taken from a data vendor, and is labelled as such.
When a tradeable float cannot be stated defensibly (for example, affiliate holdings are stale or a restricted block could not be netted out), the figure is withheld with a reason. Any number shown in its place is a labelled bound, such as a ceiling, and should not be used to compute market value or short interest as a percentage of float.
Worked example
Hypothetical: Company X has 50,000,000 shares outstanding, affiliates hold 10,000,000, and a non-affiliate holds 8,000,000 unregistered shares from a recent private placement.
| Definition | Shares |
|---|---|
| Non-affiliate float | 40,000,000 |
| Tradeable float | 32,000,000 |
All figures are hypothetical. If the 8,000,000 restricted shares could not be confirmed, the tradeable float would be withheld and shown as "at most 40,000,000".
Cash runway
Runway estimates how many months a company's cash could fund operations at its recent burn rate:
Runway (months) = Estimated current cash ÷ Monthly operating cash burn
The calculation works in three steps:
- Start from an anchor. Use the cash estimate from the company's dilution snapshot (which counts capital raised after the last balance sheet) or, failing that, cash and short-term investments from the latest balance sheet.
- Project to today. Reduce the anchor by the average quarterly operating cash outflow for the months elapsed since the anchor date. On the balance-sheet path, money raised after that date is added back.
- Divide by burn. Convert the result into months at the same burn rate.
Because the estimate is projected forward to today, it is usually smaller than a runway figure stated "as of" an older balance sheet date. Both are correct; they are dated differently.
When runway is not shown
- Operating cash flow is positive. There is no burn to divide by.
- The projection would be negative. That only shows how old the last balance sheet is; it is suppressed rather than published as zero months.
- Cash was not measured. A missing balance is never treated as an empty one.
If a company has disclosed a going concern doubt, read that disclosure together with any runway figure. A runway estimate does not override the company's and its auditor's own assessment.
Sources and dates
Dilution figures are extracted from SEC filings, and each instrument row carries a citation to the filing it came from. Every figure has an as-of date, and a snapshot is only as current as the filings read when it was built. New filings can change any figure.
FAQ
Why does a Dilution Pressure Score show a denominator below 100?
Because one or more components could not be measured, usually for lack of a stock price, market value or cash flow series. Those components are left out of the denominator instead of being counted as zero, so a score like 42 out of 85 reflects only the evidence that could be assessed. Rescaling it to a percentage of 100 would assume the missing component would have scored like the others, which is not known.
Why is a company's float different on Signal8 and on another website?
Float has several definitions. Some sources report shares outstanding minus insiders; others also subtract restricted shares; the SEC's figure includes restricted shares held by non-affiliates. Signal8 labels which definition it uses and withholds the tradeable figure when it cannot be stated defensibly, so differences usually trace back to definitions or to how recently ownership data was updated.
Does "Not measured" mean the company has no dilution?
No. It means the input needed to measure something was not available, or the company has not been analysed yet. It says nothing about whether the company has warrants, convertibles or offerings. The company's 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings remain the primary source, and reading them directly is the way to fill a gap.
Is the cash runway a prediction of when a company will run out of money?
No. It is arithmetic on reported cash and recent burn, projected to today. Burn rates change, companies raise money, and one-off payments distort averages. Runway is a way to read the balance sheet in months rather than dollars, not a forecast.