REG-Shell third quarter 2026 update note
Shell published its third quarter 2026 update note, raising its Integrated Gas production outlook to 740-780 kboe/d including the ARC Resources acquisition completed 2 September, versus the prior 570-630 range. Chemicals and Products shows a sharply higher indicative refining margin of $42/bbl versus $24/bbl in Q2, but a weaker chemicals margin of $208/tonne versus $270/tonne, with low Rhine water levels cutting refinery utilisation to 93-97%. Cash flow headwinds are flagged: a ~$2.5 billion outflow for German BEHG emissions certificates, working capital guidance of $(4)B to $1B, and ~$0.3 billion of exploration write-offs, while Marketing adjusted earnings are guided lower than Q2.
Key figures
- Guidance
- Q3'26 outlook: Integrated Gas production 740-780 kboe/d; Upstream production 1,735-1,835 kboe/d; indicative refining margin $42/bbl; indicative chemicals margin $208/tonne; refinery utilisation 93-97%; Renewables adjusted earnings $0.0-0.4B; Corporate adjusted earnings $(0.8)-(0.6)B
- Behg outflow
- ~$2.5 billion
- Earnings release date
- 29 October 2026
- Exploration writeoffs
- ~$0.3 billion
- Lng liquefaction mt q3
- 7.2-7.6
- Refinery utilisation q3
- 93-97%
- Working capital q3 range
- (4) - 1 $ billions
- Q2 2026 adjusted earnings
- 9.8 $ billions
- Indicative refining margin q2
- $24/bbl
- Indicative refining margin q3
- $42/bbl
- Upstream production kboe d q3
- 1,735-1,835
- Indicative chemicals margin q2
- $270/tonne
- Indicative chemicals margin q3
- $208/tonne
- Integrated gas production kboe d q3
- 740-780
AI analysis
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