Out of Hormuz Energy Shocks, the Ingredients for a Global Food Crisis
S&P Global's Institute published its first major report warning that Strait of Hormuz energy disruption, fertilizer supply shocks, biofuel-linked demand and a strong El Niño are converging into potential global food-crisis conditions. Key figures include roughly 29% of global urea trade and half of sulfur trade flowing through Hormuz, Middle East diesel exports down to under 1 million b/d, and a diesel-crude differential above $100 per barrel versus a historical $12-$20 range.
Key figures
- Noaa el nino anomaly
- at least 2 degrees C above normal
- Brazil corn forecut mmt
- 137
- Brazil corn downside mmt
- 10
- Crack spread diesel crude
- above $100 per barrel in early September (historically $12-$20)
- Hormuz share of lng trade
- 20%
- Hormuz share of oil supply
- 20%
- Brazil soybean forecast mmt
- 177
- Global urea trade via hormuz
- 29%
- Australia wheat potential mmt
- 22
- Global sulfur trade via hormuz
- nearly half
- Palm oil downside malaysia mmt
- 2.5
- Palm oil downside indonesia mmt
- 5.8
- Brazil soybean prob weighted mmt
- 168
- India september rainfall deficit
- approximately 14% below average
- Australia wheat current forecast mmt
- 28
- Middle east diesel exports july 2026
- less than 1 million b/d
- Global ammonia merchant trade via hormuz
- 21%
- India lng share of domestic urea production
- 85%
AI analysis
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AI-generated analysis of a public disclosure. Not investment advice; verify against the original document.