Counterfeit Cigarettes Drive EU Illicit Market Above 10% for First Time Since 2014
A KPMG study commissioned by Philip Morris International reveals that illicit cigarette consumption in the EU rose to 10.3% in 2025, driven primarily by a surge in counterfeit products. Counterfeit cigarettes now account for 44% of the illicit market, displacing traditional contraband flows and causing an estimated €16.7 billion in lost tax revenues across the EU.
Key figures
- Eu illicit market share
- 10.3%
- Eu illicit volume billion
- 41.8
- Smoke free users millions
- 43
- Counterfeit volume billion
- 18.3
- Counterfeit share of illicit
- 44%
- Eu lost tax revenue eur billion
- 16.7
- Smoke free revenue share q1 2026
- 43%
- Total european illicit volume billion
- 55.3
- Total european lost tax revenue eur billion
- 22.4
AI analysis
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